I still remember my first solar trade conference. I had just come over from 20 years in wireless telecom and was learning the ropes. My colleague and I spent the day meeting developers, swapping business cards, and hearing about “pipelines.” By the happy hour, we started adding up the megawatts everyone claimed they had in development. If you believed them all, we could have powered the entire country twice.
Fast forward eight years and hundreds of projects later, my “Bragawatts” detector has never been stronger. Having touched over 100,000 properties, reviewed thousands of AHJ ordinances, worked with some of the most successful developers and IPP’s in the country and even developed some of our own projects to NTP, we have developed a keen eye for what’s a developable property and a real project – and what’s not.
One of onCORE’s lesser known services is portfolio auditing, where we’re brought in to audit a portfolio an IPP is looking to purchase. There’s no shortage of good developers in this business, but it’s remarkable how many projects rack up tens of thousands of dollars in costs, reach mid or even late stage, and then have to be abandoned immediately. You’d be shocked to learn some of the things we’ve seen, whether it’s getting an ISA without a signed lease, getting all the way to zoning without a title report or just missing a critical step in a state process that should have been flagged from day 1.
This brings us to the million-dollar question: What is real pipeline, and how do you measure it?
On the surface, it’s simple: projects get de-risked over time, so the further along they are, the more “real” they become. Ten community solar projects at NTP (Notice to Proceed)? Roughly 50 MW, no debate. But if they’re at an earlier stage – how many have real site control, a path to permitting, a legitimate chance at IX and no title issues? All it takes is to be missing one of those four items, amongst a slew of other potential flags, to turn a Megawatt to a Bragawatt.
Here’s the hard truth: there’s no perfect formula. Sellers tend to inflate pipeline value, buyers tend to lowball, and neither side is usually thrilled with the other’s math. Years ago, I was part-owner of a small tower company. When the majority partner bought us out, the sticking point was how to value our WIP (work in progress). We bridged the gap by creating a value matrix: projects with site control and in zoning had a base value “X,” with adjustments for risk factors like AHJ approval history. It wasn’t perfect, but it was realistic enough to secure the deal.
We’ve taken that same approach here at onCORE. As a company whose fees are primarily aligned with project success (NTP), we are constantly monitoring our partners’ projects and development progress while measuring the likelihood a project comes to fruition. We have built a weighted scale based upon project status (LOI, Option, IX, Zoning, etc) to help forecast our “pipeline”. Again, it’s not perfect, but it’s conservative, time-tested and reliable.
While the likelihood of a project’s success is a sliding scale, we are steadfast in ensuring one thing remains consistent across all of our originated sites: a real foundation.
So what is an onCORE Originated Site?
- Fully executed, exclusive site control agreement on client’s paper
- Complete desktop review and intake package with 40+ data points and property maps – including vetting the land, environmental risks, a full zoning analysis and hosting capacity review
- Genuine relationships built with property owners and stakeholders
- Client approved site and commercial terms
- Preliminary title check via Owner & Encumbrances Report (when applicable)
These are early-stage projects, and yes, inevitably there will be some attrition. But these are real projects with a real chance of reaching COD, built upon a solid foundation of comprehensive due diligence and a genuine relationship with the landowner.
So when I hear someone say, “We have 500 MW of pipeline,” I can’t help but wonder, how many of those are real Megawatts and how many are Bragawatts?
The takeaway? Pipeline isn’t just about big numbers, it’s about disciplined qualification, honest evaluation, and the ability to spot when something is structurally unsound.
In the renewable industry, you don’t win by claiming the most bragawatts. You win by efficiently originating quality projects, at scale, to deliver megawatts that ultimately get built.
Joe Tassone Jr. is the founder and a principal of Oncore Origination with 30 years of project development experience and an expert in renewable energy development. Visit www.oncoreorig.com for more information.